What Happened in 2022
The 2022 election defied conventional wisdom and historical trends. Democrats won in the majority of heavily contested races, with electorates in these contests looking more like the 2020 and 2018 electorates than a typical midterm. Gen Z and Millennial voters had exceptional levels of turnout, with young voters in heavily contested states exceeding their 2018 turnout by 6% among those who were eligible in both elections. Extreme “MAGA” Republicans underperformed. Women voters pushed Democrats over the top in heavily contested races, where abortion rights were often their top issue. Democrats largely retained their winning 2020 coalition in heavily contested races, with some exceptions.