Public Resource
Protest movements: How effective are they?
James Ozden and Sam Glover, Social Change Lab

Most protest movements have little success in achieving their aims, or otherwise positive outcomes—but a small percentage of protest movements will achieve outcomes large enough to warrant funding a portfolio of social movement organizations. This resource may be useful for grantmakers and advocates who want to pursue the most effective ways to bring about change for a given issue, particularly on climate change or animal welfare. There is solid evidence that protests can cause small changes in public opinion on an issue (swaying about 2-5% of the population). There is some evidence—but less—that protest movement activity can bring about policy change.

Draws in part on the authors' prior review of the protest outcomes literature. And was summarized in this piece in Waging Nonviolence.